23年业绩稳健增长，期待新一轮旺季表现

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 32.46 CNY, reflecting a 22 times PE for 2024 [5][6][17]. Core Viewpoints - The company reported a revenue of 2.635 billion CNY in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 166 million CNY, up 20% year-on-year [1][5]. - The core product categories, particularly zongzi, showed steady growth, with zongzi sales volume increasing by 14.52% in 2023 [2]. - The company is focusing on a diversified product strategy under the "糯+" initiative, which is expected to support its continued growth [5]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 36.39%, a slight decrease of 1.10 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a significant drop in the gross margin from the supermarket channel [3]. - The net profit margin for 2023 was 6.22%, an increase of 0.64 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - For Q1 2024, the company reported a revenue of 207 million CNY, a decrease of 4.13% year-on-year, and a net loss of 70 million CNY [1][3]. Revenue Breakdown - In 2023, the revenue growth by product category was as follows: zongzi +11.06%, mooncakes -4.32%, meals +4.78%, and egg products and pastries -5.54% [2]. - By sales channel in 2023, revenue from chain stores increased by 26.68%, while e-commerce grew by 8.13%, but revenue from supermarkets declined by 15.18% [2]. - For Q1 2024, revenue from zongzi and meal products decreased by 2.32% and 7.07% respectively, while revenue from supermarkets increased by 15.43% [3]. Future Earnings Forecast - The company’s net profit is projected to be 210 million CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 26.5%, and is expected to reach 300 million CNY by 2026 [5][12]. - The revenue growth rates are forecasted at 15.6% for 2024, 13.7% for 2025, and 12.8% for 2026 [13].