4Q业绩超预期，看好全年周期弹性

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 22.32 CNY per share, corresponding to a 12x PE valuation for 2024 [4][2]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 20.621 billion CNY in 2023, a decrease of 12% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.488 billion CNY, down 32% year-on-year [2]. - The air freight segment saw a significant increase in cargo volume, reaching 1.445 million tons, up 26.42% year-on-year, with a full freighter daily utilization rate of 12.56 hours, an increase of 12.85% year-on-year [2]. - The cross-border e-commerce segment experienced a doubling in export order volume, with cargo volume of approximately 110,000 tons, up 83.55% year-on-year, and export orders totaling 53.49 million, up 113.7% year-on-year [2]. - The company’s performance in Q4 2023 exceeded expectations, with a revenue of 6.4 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 10%, and a net profit of 823 million CNY, up 19% year-on-year, resulting in a net profit margin of 15% [2]. - The report highlights strong demand and potential underestimation of supply constraints, indicating a favorable outlook for the company's earnings elasticity as freight rates are expected to rise [2]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 was 20.621 billion CNY, with a projected recovery to 24.05 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 16.6% [3]. - The net profit for 2023 was 2.488 billion CNY, with an expected increase to 2.956 billion CNY in 2024, indicating a growth rate of 18.8% [3]. - The EPS for 2023 was 1.57 CNY per share, with projections of 1.86 CNY in 2024 and 2.20 CNY in 2025 [3]. - The company’s EBITDA for 2023 was 5.647 billion CNY, with expectations of 6.076 billion CNY in 2024 [3].