ASMPT(00522) 开源证券·2024-04-25 08:02Investment Rating - Buy (maintained) [2] Core Views - Despite the weak recovery in traditional packaging business in 2024, TCB equipment shipments are expected to significantly exceed 2023 levels, with higher value and profit margins compared to traditional packaging, driving overall net profit recovery in 2024 [3] - TCB equipment is expected to continue rapid growth in 2025-2026, with traditional packaging business recovery and operational leverage driving profitability improvement, leading to high net profit growth in 2025-2026 [3] - The 2024 net profit forecast is revised down to HKD 1 billion from HKD 1.1 billion, while the 2025 net profit forecast remains at HKD 2 billion, and the 2026 net profit forecast is revised up to HKD 2.7 billion from HKD 1.9 billion, with YoY growth rates of 35.8%, 109.6%, and 31.7% respectively [3] - The current stock price of HKD 102.3 corresponds to 2024-2026 P/E ratios of 43.4x, 20.7x, and 15.7x, maintaining a "Buy" rating [3] Financial Performance - 2024Q1 revenue was USD 401 million, down 8% QoQ, within the guidance range of USD 370-430 million [4] - Semiconductor solutions division revenue fell 14% QoQ, while SMT business revenue declined 3% QoQ [4] - New orders in 2024Q1 were USD 409 million, up 17% QoQ, with 2024Q2 revenue guidance of USD 380-440 million, indicating a 2.2% QoQ growth at the midpoint, primarily driven by advanced packaging [4] TCB Equipment Prospects - TCB equipment is expected to see rapid growth due to its technological leadership, with significant progress in both logic and memory customers [5] - For logic customers, TCB equipment is expected to be adopted in the C2W process, requiring higher quantities and offering higher value due to precision control requirements [5] - For memory customers, the transition from 8hi to 12hi and 16hi HBM increases I/O density and thinner chips, making traditional MR solutions less viable and driving the adoption of TCB equipment [5] - TCB equipment for 12hi HBM is already in production and delivery, with further growth expected in 2025 as 12hi HBM becomes more widely adopted [5] Financial Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are HKD 14.424 billion, HKD 17.951 billion, and HKD 19.789 billion, with YoY growth rates of -1.86%, 24.46%, and 10.24% respectively [6] - Net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are HKD 972 million, HKD 2.037 billion, and HKD 2.682 billion, with YoY growth rates of 35.84%, 109.64%, and 31.68% respectively [6] - Gross margins are expected to improve from 42.60% in 2024 to 46.16% in 2026, while net margins are forecasted to rise from 6.74% in 2024 to 13.56% in 2026 [6] - ROE is projected to increase from 6.31% in 2024 to 14.65% in 2026, with EPS growing from HKD 2.4 in 2024 to HKD 6.5 in 2026 [6]