Bank of Chengdu(601838) 民生证券·2024-04-25 08:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Chengdu Bank, with a target price corresponding to 0.8 times the 2024 PB based on the closing price on April 25, 2024 [2][3]. Core Views - Chengdu Bank is expected to sustain high loan growth due to strong credit demand driven by major regional strategies, with loan growth rates remaining above 25% in recent years [2]. - The bank's asset quality continues to improve, with a reduction in non-performing loan (NPL) ratio to 0.66% as of Q1 2024, and a high provision coverage ratio of 504% [1][2]. - The bank's dividend payout ratio remains high at 30%, providing attractive dividend returns, with a dividend yield of 6.1% based on the closing price on April 25, 2024 [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, Chengdu Bank reported revenue of 21.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, and a net profit of 11.7 billion yuan, up 16.2% year-on-year [1][3]. - In Q1 2024, revenue reached 5.6 billion yuan, growing 6.3% year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.9 billion yuan, reflecting a 12.8% increase year-on-year [1]. - The bank's total assets, loans, and deposits grew by 19.6%, 27.0%, and 16.8% respectively in Q1 2024 compared to the previous year [1]. Loan and Asset Quality - The total loan amount increased by 651 billion yuan in Q1 2024, with 98% of the growth coming from corporate loans, indicating a focus on supporting local economic development [1]. - The NPL ratio is projected to further decline to 0.63% in 2024 and 0.58% in 2025, demonstrating ongoing improvement in asset quality [11]. Earnings Forecast - The forecasted earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 3.41 yuan, 3.82 yuan, and 4.32 yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 5, 4, and 4 [3][10]. - The bank's net interest margin (NIM) is expected to decrease from 1.75% in 2023 to 1.58% in 2024, reflecting pressures on both asset and liability sides [11].