Q4业绩符合预期，期待上游增产降本

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target price of 10.75 CNY per share based on a 15x PE for 2024 [3]. Core Views - In Q4 2023, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 8% quarter-on-quarter, aligning with expectations. The company reported a revenue of 6.6 billion CNY, down 12% from the previous quarter, and a net profit of 568 million CNY, also down 8% [1]. - The decline in Q4 performance is attributed to a drop in aluminum product sales, with revenue decreasing by 917 million CNY while operating costs only fell by 707 million CNY. The high-purity aluminum sales were impacted by export tariff policies, resulting in an estimated loss of approximately 180 million CNY in gross profit [1]. - The average aluminum price and electrolytic aluminum costs increased in Q4, leading to a slight rise in estimated gross profit per ton of electrolytic aluminum by 88 CNY [1]. - The company maintained stable production levels for electrolytic aluminum in 2023 and anticipates increased production of bauxite and alumina in 2024 to lower costs and enhance resource security [1]. - The company plans to achieve production targets of 1.16 million tons of primary aluminum, 2.35 million tons of alumina, 550,000 tons of anodes, and 3 million tons of bauxite in 2024 [1]. - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at 0.72, 0.72, and 0.74 CNY, respectively, reflecting a stable low-cost advantage and improved resource security [2]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2022 was 33.008 billion CNY, which decreased to 28.975 billion CNY in 2023, with a projected increase to 33.495 billion CNY in 2024 [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.650 billion CNY in 2022, dropping to 2.205 billion CNY in 2023, with an expected recovery to 3.333 billion CNY in 2024 [2]. - The EPS for 2022 was 0.57 CNY, decreasing to 0.48 CNY in 2023, with forecasts of 0.72 CNY for 2024 and 0.74 CNY for 2026 [2].