CGN POWER(003816) 华源证券·2024-04-25 10:00Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [2] Core Views - The company's 2023 performance met expectations, with revenue of RMB 825.49 billion, a slight decrease of 0.33% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 107.3 billion, an increase of 7.64% YoY [2] - The company announced a dividend of RMB 0.094 per share for 2023, with a dividend payout ratio of 44.3% [2] - The company's power generation business performed in line with expectations, with power sales revenue of RMB 625.17 billion, up 7.59% YoY, while other businesses (mainly construction and installation) saw revenue decline by 18.96% YoY to RMB 200.3 billion [2] - The company's financial expenses decreased by RMB 900 million in 2023 due to active replacement of high-cost loans, and the debt-to-asset ratio dropped to 60.19%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points from 2022 [2] - The company's 2024 performance is expected to grow significantly due to the resumption of normal operations at the Taishan 1 unit and the expected commissioning of the Fangchenggang 4 unit within the year [2] - The company has 7 nuclear power units under construction and 4 approved for construction, with a stable growth in nuclear power installed capacity expected from 2024 to 2030 [2] - The company has committed to increasing its dividend payout ratio during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with the dividend payout ratio for 2021, 2022, and 2023 being 43.58%, 44.09%, and 44.3%, respectively [2] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company's revenue is forecasted to be RMB 857.54 billion, RMB 882.98 billion, and RMB 918.72 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with YoY growth rates of 3.88%, 2.97%, and 4.05% [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be RMB 118.72 billion, RMB 124.00 billion, and RMB 130.68 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with YoY growth rates of 10.70%, 4.44%, and 5.39% [3] - Earnings per share are forecasted to be RMB 0.24, RMB 0.25, and RMB 0.26 for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [3] - The company's gross margin is expected to increase from 36.0% in 2023 to 37.2%, 37.8%, and 38.5% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [3] - The company's ROE is expected to be 10.7%, 10.3%, and 10.1% for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [3] - The company's PE ratio is forecasted to be 17, 16, and 15 for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [3] Stock Data - The company's stock price as of March 28, 2024, was RMB 3.98, with a 52-week high/low of RMB 4.17/RMB 2.74 [4] - The company's market capitalization was RMB 201 billion as of March 28, 2024 [4] - The company's total assets were RMB 4.153 trillion as of December 31, 2023, with net assets of RMB 1.653 trillion [4] - The company's book value per share was RMB 2.24 as of December 31, 2023, with a PB ratio of 1.77 [4] Industry Outlook - The company is expected to maintain stable growth in nuclear power installed capacity from 2024 to 2030, with 1-2 nuclear power units expected to be commissioned each year [2] - The company's dividend payout ratio is expected to continue to increase during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with a forecasted dividend yield of 2.7%, 2.8%, and 2.9% for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2]