Q1业绩高增超预期 看好全年业绩与估值双重修复： 湖北能源

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][4] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a significant increase in net profit for Q1 2024, with estimates ranging from 710 to 920 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 129% to 196% [3] - The strong performance is attributed to favorable water inflow, increased electricity demand, and a decline in coal prices, which have positively impacted both hydropower and thermal power generation [3][4] - The company has a diversified energy portfolio, with hydropower, thermal power, wind, and solar contributing to its overall performance, and it is well-positioned for continued growth in 2024 [4] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - The company reported a cumulative power generation of 10.8 billion kWh from January to March 2024, a 42% increase year-on-year, driven by a cold wave and a low base from the previous year [3] - Hydropower generation reached 3.465 billion kWh, up 176% year-on-year, while thermal power generation increased by 12.5% to 6.1 billion kWh [3] Market Conditions - The report highlights that the current low coal prices and high water levels in key reservoirs provide a solid foundation for Q2 performance [3] - As of April 12, 2024, the water level at the main reservoir was 380 meters, compared to 368 meters the previous year, indicating favorable conditions for hydropower generation [3] Regulatory Environment - Recent policies from the Hubei Provincial Development and Reform Commission aim to reduce electricity costs for industrial and commercial users, which may impact electricity pricing but are expected to have limited short-term effects on the company's performance due to its conservative approach to new energy development [4] Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.81 billion, 2.89 billion, and 3.44 billion yuan for the years 2023 to 2025, with corresponding PE ratios of 13 and 11 for 2024 and 2025 [4] - The intrinsic value of the company is estimated at 47 billion yuan, considering its diverse energy sources and additional business segments [4]