Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for CGN New Energy (1811 HK) [2] Core Views - CGN New Energy's 2023 performance met expectations, with a significant improvement in profitability driven by lower coal costs and better wind resources [2] - The company's dividend payout ratio increased to 25%, with an absolute dividend amount growing by 71% year-over-year, highlighting its high dividend value [2] - The company's renewable energy projects demonstrate high quality, with stable electricity prices and superior profitability compared to peers [2] - Backed by CGN Group, the company benefits from scale advantages and project acquisition capabilities, ensuring high growth and return rates [2] - The company's valuation remains attractive, with a forward PE ratio of 4 2x for 2024 and a dividend yield exceeding 6% [2] Financial Performance - In 2023, CGN New Energy reported revenue of USD 2 19 billion (RMB 15 53 billion), a year-over-year decline of 9 8%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 37 2% to USD 268 million (RMB 1 896 billion) [2] - The company's coal-fired power projects in China turned profitable, contributing USD 15 million, compared to a loss of USD 50 million in 2022, due to a 17 3% decline in coal procurement costs [2] - Wind power projects in China generated USD 260 million, up 12% year-over-year, driven by a 10 6% increase in wind power generation [2] - Solar power projects in China generated USD 28 million, down 36% year-over-year, due to impairment of some receivables [2] Renewable Energy Projects - CGN New Energy's wind power projects achieved an electricity price of RMB 0 56/kWh (tax included), slightly down by RMB 0 01/kWh year-over-year, while solar power prices remained stable at RMB 0 64/kWh [2] - The company added 590 MW of new renewable energy capacity in 2023, including 20 MW of wind power and 570 MW of solar power, primarily in regions with low grid curtailment risks [2] - The company aims to add at least 500 MW of new renewable energy capacity annually, ensuring leading project return rates [2] Valuation and Forecasts - The report forecasts net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1 947 billion, RMB 2 055 billion, and RMB 2 17 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 2 7%, 5 53%, and 5 4% [2] - The company's forward PE ratios for 2024-2026 are 4 2x, 3 9x, and 3 7x, respectively, with dividend yields of 6 0%, 6 3%, and 6 7% assuming a 25% payout ratio [2] Market Performance - CGN New Energy's stock performance is compared to the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, with significant underperformance over the past year [1]
业绩符合预期，分红率提升更凸显高股息价值