Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market [1][3]. Core Insights - The company's green environmental performance has declined, with a 33.7% year-on-year decrease in EBITDA to 1.48 billion HKD in 2023, down from 2.23 billion HKD in 2022. However, the acceleration of national subsidies for biomass projects in 2024 is expected to improve cash flow [1]. - The profit forecast has been adjusted upwards, with the expected net profit for 2024 and 2025 revised to 4.573 billion HKD and 4.715 billion HKD, respectively. A new forecast for 2026 has been added at 4.840 billion HKD. The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are 4.1, 4.0, and 3.9 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, indicating that the company's valuation is over 50% lower than comparable companies [1][3]. - The company has seen a shift in revenue structure, with operational income increasing as construction revenue declines. In 2023, operational and financial income accounted for 76% of total revenue, up 11 percentage points from 2022 [3]. - The company is expected to achieve positive free cash flow in 2024, with capital expenditures projected to continue decreasing. The dividend payout ratio is around 30%, with potential for an increase as free cash flow improves [3]. - The company maintains its leading position in the waste-to-energy industry, with a waste processing capacity of 158,900 tons per day as of the end of 2023, remaining the largest global operator in this sector [3]. - The water services segment has shown steady profit growth, with a 13.58% year-on-year increase in EBITDA to 2.475 billion HKD in 2023 [3]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company reported a total revenue of 32.09 billion HKD in 2023, a 14% decrease year-on-year, while net profit was 4.429 billion HKD, down 4% from the previous year [3][4]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2024 and 2025 are 35.622 billion HKD and 36.272 billion HKD, respectively, with expected growth rates of 11% and 2% [4]. - The forecasted net profit for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is 4.573 billion HKD, 4.715 billion HKD, and 4.840 billion HKD, respectively [4]. Operational Insights - The operational income has increased, with a significant rise in the share of operational and financial income in total revenue, indicating a transition to a more sustainable revenue model [3]. - The company has reduced capital expenditures significantly, leading to an improvement in free cash flow, which is expected to turn positive in 2024 [3].
运营收入占比持续提升自由现金流接近转正： 光大环境