行 业 及 产 业 公用事业 2025 年 07 月 21 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 联系人 朱赫 (8621)23297818× zhuhe@swsresearch.com 雅江水电正式开工 欧亚气价回落 看好 ——申万公用环保周报(25/07/14~25/07/18) 本期投资提示： 证券分析师 王璐 A0230516080007 wanglu@swsresearch.com 莫龙庭 A0230523080005 molt@swsresearch.com 傅浩玮 A0230522010001 fuhw@swsresearch.com 朱赫 A0230524070002 zhuhe@swsresearch.com 研究支持 朱赫 A0230524070002 zhuhe@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 - ⚫ 电力：雅鲁藏布江下游水电站开工，水电设备双寡头有望直接受益。7 月 19 日国资委发布公告， 经国务院批准，组建中国雅江集团有限公司。同日，雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of "insufficient garbage supply" in China's waste incineration power generation industry, highlighting the transition from "garbage siege" to "garbage scarcity" and the challenges faced by incineration plants due to overcapacity and reduced waste generation [2][3][4]. Group 1: Industry Overview - In the past two decades, China has transformed its waste management approach, with the proportion of urban household waste treated by incineration rising from 9.8% in 2005 to 82.5% in 2023, while landfill treatment dropped from 85.2% to 7.5% [2]. - The number of waste incineration plants has increased from 67 to 1010, with an average capacity utilization rate of around 60% in recent years [3][4]. - The daily incineration capacity of waste has surged from 23.8 million tons in 2016 to 115.5 million tons in 2024, yet the industry average load factor remains below 60%, with 40% of capacity idle [9]. Group 2: Causes of Insufficient Garbage Supply - The insufficient garbage supply is attributed to two main factors: overestimation of future waste generation during planning and the impact of waste classification, which has diverted organic waste away from incineration [3][10]. - The construction of incineration plants has outpaced actual waste generation, leading to a supply-demand imbalance, with many plants operating at low capacity [10][11]. - The promotion of waste classification has resulted in a significant portion of waste being processed differently, reducing the amount available for incineration [11]. Group 3: Financial and Operational Challenges - The financial viability of incineration plants is increasingly challenged by the reduction of government subsidies and the need to diversify operations, such as providing steam and heat to nearby industries [4][20]. - The revenue structure of incineration plants relies heavily on government subsidies, which have been declining, leading to increased pressure on local governments to cover rising waste disposal fees [19][21]. - The average waste disposal fee has risen significantly, with some regions charging up to 150 yuan per ton, increasing the financial burden on local governments [23][24]. Group 4: Future Trends and Adaptations - The industry is expected to adapt by exploring new business models and expanding services beyond waste incineration, such as heat supply and sludge treatment [4][25]. - The article suggests that the industry must focus on improving economic efficiency and diversifying revenue sources to cope with the challenges of insufficient waste supply and subsidy reductions [25].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the environmental protection industry [1]. Core Views - The report emphasizes the improvement in cash flow and dividend potential due to reduced capital expenditures in the waste management sector, alongside enhanced return on equity (ROE) through quality improvements in heating and IDC collaborations [1][11][15]. Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The environmental protection sector is experiencing a significant shift with a 9% increase in the sector's performance compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 indices [3]. - The report highlights a 73% increase in sales of new energy sanitation vehicles, with a penetration rate rising to 14.95% [25]. Key Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Huaneng Environment, Green Power, and Yongxing Co., among others, due to their strong dividend potential and operational efficiency [5][11]. - It suggests focusing on companies like Yuehai Investment and Xingrong Environment for their robust cash flow and high dividend yields [17]. Policy Tracking - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has issued a notice to enhance the quality of law enforcement, which is expected to improve operational efficiency and compliance in the industry [9][10]. - The report notes that the government is concentrating on environmental governance funding for 2025, which may positively impact the sector [7]. Financial Performance - The waste management sector is projected to see a significant increase in free cash flow, with dividends expected to rise as capital expenditures decrease [11][12]. - Specific companies are highlighted for their dividend growth, such as Junxin Co. with a 37% increase in cash dividends and Green Power with a 100% increase [12][13]. Market Dynamics - The report discusses the trend of garbage incineration and IDC collaborations as a new growth avenue, emphasizing the advantages of clean and efficient energy generation [14]. - The water utility sector is also highlighted for its stable growth and high dividends, with ongoing water price reforms expected to enhance profitability [15][17]. Sector Performance - The environmental protection and public utilities index rose by 2.69% during the week of July 7-11, 2025, outperforming the broader market indices [45].

光大环境 20250708 摘要 光大环境 2025 年上半年收益减少约 10 亿港币，主要受人民币兑港币 升值、危废业务固定资产减值影响，但核心盈利保持稳中有升，整体业 绩稳中向好。 2025 年上半年自由现金流为正，得益于资本性开支减少，但国补回收 不及去年同期。预计下半年可能有更多国补发放，具体时间和额度待定。 公司计划维持派息稳中有升，管理层正与董事长沟通，制定可操作性方 案，财务总监和 CEO 也参与讨论。 部分过去未纳入补贴清单的项目已进入社会清单，有望在年内转为应收 账款。财政部正筹集 2000 亿资金解决欠补问题，或将积极影响回款。 上半年对危废板块进行固定资产减值，以确保全年经营业绩稳定。处理 价格虽有所恢复，但尚未明显改善，减值规模预计小于去年全年的一半。 全年资本开支预计控制在 40-50 亿港币之间，受乌兹别克斯坦项目影响。 该项目处理费和电费高于国内，采用 100%保底模式，并有保函机制。 公司通过拓展餐厨垃圾处理、供热等业务增加收入来源，并积极推进 ABN 或 ABS 模式加快回款，但前提是国补回款稳定。 Q&A 2025 年上半年，光大环境的业绩有所倒退，主要原因有三个方面。首先 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese waste incineration industry is facing challenges in certain regions due to insufficient waste supply, leading companies to expand their operations through acquisitions and cross-regional strategies [1][2][3]. Industry Overview - The competition in China's waste incineration industry has intensified, with the country's waste incineration capacity surpassing that of the US, Japan, and the EU combined [3][4]. - The proportion of waste treated by incineration has increased significantly from 9.8% in 2005 to 82.5% in 2023, while landfill treatment has decreased from 85.2% to 7.5% [3][4]. - The number of waste incineration plants has grown from 67 in 2005 to 1010 by October 2024, indicating a shift from "garbage siege" to "garbage scarcity" over approximately 20 years [4]. Company Actions - Companies like Zhongke Environmental and Shenzhen Energy are actively acquiring and investing in waste incineration projects to secure more waste supply [1][2]. - The average capacity utilization rate for domestic waste incineration projects is around 60%, with 16% of facilities operating below 50% capacity [5][7]. - Major listed companies in the industry include China Everbright International, Hanlan Environment, Sanfeng Environment, and others, with varying capacities and revenue figures [6][7]. Market Dynamics - The phenomenon of "insufficient waste" is recognized as a common issue within the industry, particularly in county-level administrative units where planning may not align with actual waste generation [7][8]. - Specific examples, such as the waste incineration plant in Weinan, Shaanxi, show that actual processing volumes can be significantly lower than designed capacities, leading to low utilization rates [8][9].

Core Insights - The data indicates significant trading volume increases for various companies, suggesting heightened investor interest and potential market movements [1][2][3][4][5] Group 1: Companies with Notable Volume Increases - 阳光能源 (00757) reported a volume ratio of 2.35, indicating strong trading activity [2] - 长城汽车 (02333) had a volume ratio of 2.21, reflecting increased investor engagement [2] - 郑煤机 (00564) showed a volume ratio of 1.92, suggesting a notable rise in trading [2] Group 2: Additional Companies with Increased Trading Activity - 万国数据-SW (09698) recorded a volume ratio of 1.83, indicating significant market interest [2] - 映恩生物-B (09606) had a volume ratio of 1.78, reflecting heightened trading activity [2] - 超盈国际控股 (02111) reported a volume ratio of 1.71, suggesting increased investor focus [2] Group 3: Companies with Moderate Volume Ratios - 中国能源建设 (03996) had a volume ratio of 1.70, indicating a solid level of trading activity [2] - 亚信科技 (01675) reported a volume ratio of 1.60, reflecting moderate investor interest [2] - 金宝通 (00320) showed a volume ratio of 1.53, suggesting a rise in trading volume [2] Group 4: Companies with Lower Volume Ratios - 中国水务 (00855) had a volume ratio of 1.52, indicating stable trading activity [2] - 广汽集团 (02238) reported a volume ratio of 1.52, reflecting consistent investor engagement [2] - 凯莱英 (06821) showed a volume ratio of 1.52, suggesting steady trading interest [2]

Group 1 - Human robot concept stocks surged on June 19, with notable gains in several companies, including Zhongjing Electronics, Jiangsu Leili, Shuanglin Co., and Hanwei Technology [1][2] - Jiangsu Leili's stock rose by 11.76% to 40.20, while Zhongjing Electronics hit the daily limit with a price of 9.91, reflecting a 9.99% increase [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Civil Affairs announced a pilot program for smart elderly care service robots, set to run from 2025 to 2027, requiring extensive application validations [1][2] Group 2 - The first professional exhibition for humanoid robots in China, the 2025 Hangzhou International Humanoid Robot and Robot Technology Exhibition, is set to take place, featuring major companies like Tesla [3] - Tesla's CEO Elon Musk revealed the development of the third-generation Optimus robot, expected to improve coordination and complex task execution, with a production target of 100,000 units next year [3] - China Mobile, in collaboration with partners, launched the world's first humanoid robot based on 5G-Advanced technology, enhancing connectivity and operational capabilities [3] Group 3 - Morgan Stanley predicts China's humanoid robot market will grow at a rate of 63% annually, from $300 million this year to $3.4 billion by 2030, with an expected 252,000 units by 2030 [4] - The report indicates that by 2050, China will have 302 million humanoid robots, accounting for 30% of the global total [4] - Analysts suggest that the humanoid robot sector is entering a golden cycle of technological breakthroughs, mass production, and market penetration, positioning it as a core investment theme by 2025 [5]

习近平总书记指出："绿色发展是高质量发展的底色，新质生产力本身就是绿色生产力。"这一重要论断 为环保产业的转型升级指明了方向，深刻揭示了环保产业走出传统基建思路、在服务全社会绿色低碳转 型中实现产业升级的必然规律。绿色生产力之于环保产业，并非简单的技术升级，而是技术范式革命、 要素配置重构、制度创新协同的系统性变革，目的是将企业参与生态治理的底层驱动力由外部委托转化 为内生创造，以推动环保产业朝着高质量发展方向迈进。 绿色生产力是环保产业升级的力量之源 党的二十大以来，环保产业开启了一场从定位、逻辑到内涵的全方位变革，产业定位突破传统末端治理 的范畴，产业逻辑告别粗放低效的模式，产业内涵迈向人与自然和谐共生的价值重构。环保产业正以绿 色生产力为支点，撬动经济社会全面绿色转型中的产业价值，在美丽中国建设与全球气候治理的双重坐 标系中，锚定产业升级的新方位、开辟高质量发展的新境界。 产业基础能力更加完备。研发投入快速增加，近5年我国环保产业研发经费年均增长率达12%，2023年 突破800亿元，重点企业研发投入占比超5%。基本实现重大装备国产化，国产环保装备自给率从2018年 的65%提升至2023年的82%，拥 ...

Industry Overview - The urban environmental protection industry focuses on solving urban environmental issues and improving ecological quality through technology and management measures [1][9] - The industry has seen significant growth, with the market size projected to increase from 1.01 trillion yuan in 2019 to 1.49 trillion yuan in 2024 [7][9] Industry Environment - Urban areas are densely populated and face severe environmental challenges, making urban environmental protection a priority for national development [5] - As of the end of 2023, there are 694 cities in China, with an urbanization rate of 67%, indicating ongoing urbanization and a growing demand for environmental services [5] Industry Status - The urban environmental protection industry is categorized into four segments: energy conservation and emission reduction (35.81%), pollution control (29.96%), recycling (20.91%), and natural resource protection (13.32%) [9] - Major companies in the industry include China Everbright Environment, Beijing Enterprises Water Group, and China Tianying, which are part of the leading competitive tier [11] Future Trends - Technological innovation is driving the industry towards smart environmental solutions, with advancements in IoT, AI, and big data enhancing operational efficiency [17] - Continuous policy support is expected to facilitate market reforms, with initiatives aimed at improving resource and environmental market mechanisms [18] - The international market is becoming increasingly important, with Chinese environmental companies expanding their presence in Southeast Asia and the Middle East [19]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformation of waste management in China, highlighting the shift from a "garbage siege" to a situation where waste incineration plants are struggling to find enough garbage to process, leading to a competitive environment for waste collection and management [4][10][20]. Group 1: Industry Overview - Ten years ago, the issue of "garbage siege" was prevalent, but now it is widely recognized that there is not enough waste to incinerate in China [4][10]. - China has nearly half of the world's waste incineration plants, with over 1,010 facilities, making it the leader in waste incineration capacity globally [11][20]. - The average load rate of waste incineration plants in China is about 60%, indicating that 40% of capacity is underutilized [9]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Waste incineration plants are resorting to extreme measures to secure waste, including paying kickbacks to property companies for waste collection [6]. - There is a trend of reopening landfills to excavate buried waste, with cities like Guangzhou and others participating in this underground competition [8]. - The number of planned shutdowns for waste incineration plants in 2023 reached 83,467 days, indicating significant operational challenges [9]. Group 3: Historical Context - The turning point for China's waste incineration industry was in 2003 when the government shifted to a model allowing private investment and operation [14]. - Policies promoting waste incineration have been introduced over the years, including increased subsidies for renewable energy projects and stricter pollution control standards [15][16]. - The rapid growth of waste incineration facilities has led to significant advancements in waste management technology and capacity [17][18]. Group 4: Future Opportunities - With domestic waste generation insufficient to meet the operational capacity of incineration plants, companies are looking abroad for opportunities [22]. - Chinese waste incineration companies have successfully established over 50 projects overseas, particularly in Southeast Asia and the Middle East [24]. - Advanced technologies developed in China for waste incineration, such as the FAST process for treating fly ash, are gaining international recognition and application [25].