HPI(600011) 国信证券·2024-04-25 12:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for Huaneng International (600011.SH) is "Buy" [4][10] Core Views - The company's revenue slightly increased, while net profit attributable to shareholders saw a significant year-on-year growth of 104.25% in Q1 2024, reaching 45.96 billion yuan. This growth was primarily driven by an increase in domestic power generation and a decrease in fuel costs [1][5] - The decline in coal prices has positively impacted thermal power profitability, with coal prices dropping by 17.91% year-on-year as of April 23, 2024. This trend is expected to stabilize thermal power profitability as the new electricity pricing policies are implemented [1][10] - The share of renewable energy installations continues to rise, with the company adding 1.61 GW of controllable power generation capacity in Q1 2024. The total controllable power generation capacity reached 137.12 GW, with wind and solar power accounting for 22.04% of the total [1][10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, Huaneng International achieved an operating revenue of 653.67 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.15%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 45.96 billion yuan, marking a 104.25% increase year-on-year. The company's average on-grid settlement price was 497.97 yuan/MWh, down 3.99% [1][5] - The profit from the coal-fired segment reached 28.25 billion yuan, up 4151.44%, while the wind and solar segments also showed positive growth [5][6] Market Trends - The company is experiencing a shift towards renewable energy, with significant capital expenditures planned for wind and solar projects, amounting to 295.44 billion yuan and 353.81 billion yuan respectively [1][10] - The expected net profit for 2024-2026 is projected to be 129.8 billion yuan, 143.1 billion yuan, and 155.5 billion yuan respectively, with earnings per share (EPS) forecasted at 0.83, 0.91, and 0.99 yuan [10][12] Valuation - The reasonable market capitalization for Huaneng International is estimated to be between 1504 billion yuan and 1634 billion yuan, with a corresponding fair value per share of 9.61 to 10.44 yuan, indicating a premium of 3% to 12% over the current stock price [10][12]