2023年报及2024一季报点评报告：饲料主业稳健发展，2024Q1业绩同比大幅改善

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the feed business of the company is developing steadily, with a significant improvement in Q1 2024 performance compared to the previous year [1][4] - The company achieved a total revenue of 116.12 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.89%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.74 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.31% [3][4] - In Q1 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 23.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 0.8%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders was 861 million yuan, showing a remarkable growth of 111% [3][4] Summary by Sections Business Performance - The company sold 24.4 million tons of feed in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 13%, with external sales of 22.6 million tons, up by 236,000 tons [2] - The external sales of aquatic feed reached 5.24 million tons, a 2% increase year-on-year, with a notable improvement in product structure [2] - Poultry feed external sales were 11.3 million tons, also up by 13%, as the poultry industry began to recover from previous losses [2] - Pig feed external sales increased by 17% to 5.79 million tons, supported by ongoing R&D investments [2] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are adjusted to 131.58 billion yuan, 148.94 billion yuan, and 166.44 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to be 4.04 billion yuan, 4.95 billion yuan, and 5.97 billion yuan [5][6] - The report anticipates a significant recovery in net profit growth rates, with forecasts of 47%, 23%, and 21% for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [6][7] Valuation Metrics - The report provides a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio forecast of 20, 17, and 14 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5][6] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 14% in 2023 to 18% in 2024, stabilizing at 19% in the following years [6][7]