supor(002032) Guotou Securities·2024-04-26 02:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy-A rating for Supor (002032 SZ) with a 6-month target price of RMB 76 30 [2][3] Core Views - Supor's Q1 2024 revenue reached RMB 5 38 billion, a YoY increase of 8 4%, with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 470 million, up 7 2% YoY [1] - Domestic sales remained stable, while overseas sales continued to recover, contributing to steady growth in Q1 performance [1] - The company's gross margin in Q1 was 24 4%, down 0 8 percentage points YoY, primarily due to the increased proportion of lower-margin overseas sales [1] - Net profit margin in Q1 was 8 7%, down 0 1 percentage points YoY, but the decline was smaller than the gross margin drop due to effective cost control and foreign exchange gains [1] - Operating cash flow improved significantly, with a net inflow of RMB 1 04 billion in Q1, up 38 5% YoY, driven by increased sales and improved cash collection efficiency [2] Regional Sales Performance - Domestic sales showed marginal improvement, with online sales declining 7 7% YoY in Q1 but recovering to a 1 5% YoY growth in March [1] - Overseas sales grew rapidly, supported by strong export performance in kitchen appliances such as electric water heaters, rice cookers, and ovens, with export values increasing by 30 3%, 2 2%, 10 4%, and 12 6% YoY respectively [1] Financial Projections - The report forecasts EPS for 2024-2026 at RMB 3 05, 3 45, and 3 85 respectively, with a 25x forward P/E ratio for 2024 [2] - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 22 97 billion in 2024 to RMB 27 7 billion in 2026, with net profit increasing from RMB 2 46 billion to RMB 3 11 billion over the same period [7][10] Profitability and Valuation Metrics - Gross margin is projected to improve from 26 8% in 2024 to 27 3% in 2026, with net profit margin rising from 10 7% to 11 2% [10] - ROE is expected to remain strong, ranging from 30 5% in 2024 to 28 2% in 2026, while ROIC is forecasted to exceed 100% in all projected years [10] Cash Flow and Liquidity - Supor's cash position remains robust, with cash and cash equivalents plus short-term investments totaling RMB 4 87 billion at the end of Q1 2024, up 6 6% YoY [2] - The company's cash collection ratio improved to 97 8% in Q1, up 11 5 percentage points YoY, indicating strong cash flow management [2]