Songcheng Performance(300144) 国金证券·2024-04-26 02:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Songcheng Performance Development Co Ltd (300144) [2][7] Core Views - Songcheng's performance in 2023 showed significant recovery, with revenue reaching 1.93 billion yuan, a 320.8% year-on-year increase [2] - The company's on-site performance business recovered to 89.1% of 2019 levels, with some regions exceeding pre-pandemic performance [2] - Q1 2024 results were strong, with revenue of 560 million yuan (+138.7% YoY) and net profit of 250 million yuan (+317% YoY) [2] - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of domestic tourism market, with projected net profits of 1.2/1.52/1.76 billion yuan for 2024E-2025E [2] Business Performance On-site Performance - 2023 revenue reached 1.67 billion yuan, recovering to 89.1% of 2019 levels [2] - Regional performance varied: Hangzhou (71% of 2019), Sanya (49%), Lijiang (97%), Guilin (118%), Zhangjiajie (105%) [2] - Gross margins improved: Hangzhou (65.1%), Sanya (76.2%), Lijiang (79.4%) [2] Tourism Services - 2023 revenue surged 357% to 260 million yuan [2] - Gross margin reached 97.1%, up 3.1 percentage points [2] Financial Projections - Revenue growth expected: 36.25% in 2024E, 21.48% in 2025E, 9.49% in 2026E [4] - Net profit forecast: 1.2 billion yuan (2024E), 1.52 billion yuan (2025E), 1.76 billion yuan (2026E) [4] - PE ratios projected at 23X (2024E), 18X (2025E), 16X (2026E) [2] Operational Highlights - During 2024 Spring Festival Golden Week, total performances reached 251% of 2019 levels [2] - Total tourist reception reached 207% of 2019 levels during the same period [2] - New Guangdong project achieved up to 10 performances per day in Q1 2024 [2] Market Sentiment - Recent market ratings show consistent "Buy" recommendations [6][7] - No "Sell" or "Reduce" ratings observed in the past six months [6]