HISENSE H.A.(000921) 国泰君安·2024-04-26 04:32Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hisense Home Appliances (000921) with an updated target price of 43.69 CNY, up from the previous target of 35.55 CNY [1][10]. Core Views - The company's performance exceeded expectations in Q1 2024, driven by strong export growth and improved profitability across various segments. The overall growth target for the year is highly certain [1][6][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Performance Overview - In Q1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 23.486 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.87%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.981 billion CNY, up 59.48% year-on-year [6][10]. 2. Revenue Drivers - The export business showed significant growth, with the company expecting better performance in exports compared to domestic sales. Key segments include: - Air Conditioners: Q1 2024 domestic sales increased by 30.2% year-on-year, with exports up 33.5%. Overall revenue growth is projected at 15-20% [7]. - Refrigerators: The company anticipates a more than 60% increase in export revenue and around 20% growth in domestic sales, leading to a total revenue increase of 35-40% for the refrigeration segment [7]. - Washing Machines: The washing machine segment, primarily under the Hisense brand, is expected to contribute 10-15% to the overall revenue [7]. - Central Air Conditioning: Revenue growth is estimated at 5-10% due to enhanced retail channel development [7]. 3. Profitability Improvement - The gross margin for Q1 2024 was 21.63%, an increase of 0.51 percentage points year-on-year. The net margin improved to 6.55%, up 1.18 percentage points year-on-year. The improvement in margins is attributed to increased production scale and higher average prices for white goods [8]. 4. Cash Flow and Inventory Management - As of the end of Q1 2024, the company maintained stable cash and cash equivalents of 18.139 billion CNY, with inventory increasing by 6.06% year-on-year. The net cash flow from operating activities was 0.156 billion CNY, down 82.4% year-on-year, primarily due to rising raw material prices [9]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests raising profit forecasts for 2024-2026, with expected net profits of 3.567 billion CNY, 4.176 billion CNY, and 4.819 billion CNY, respectively. The corresponding EPS estimates are 2.57 CNY, 3.01 CNY, and 3.47 CNY, reflecting year-on-year growth of 26%, 17%, and 15% [10].