NHD(SZ:002946) Huachuang Securities·2024-04-26 04:32Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation of significant outperformance compared to the benchmark index over the next 3-6 months [118]. Core Insights - The company achieved a total revenue of 10,987 million in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.8%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 431 million, with a year-on-year increase of 19.2% [2][140]. - The first quarter of 2024 showed a revenue of 2,527 million, a year-on-year growth of 4.5%, and a net profit of 0.9 million, representing a substantial increase of 46.9% year-on-year [140]. - The report highlights that the company is expected to benefit from a decrease in raw milk costs, which will enhance profitability in 2024 [140]. Financial Summary - Revenue Forecasts: - 2023A: 10,987 million - 2024E: 11,492 million (4.6% growth) - 2025E: 12,230 million (6.4% growth) - 2026E: 12,935 million (5.8% growth) [2] - Net Profit Forecasts: - 2023A: 431 million - 2024E: 528 million (22.7% growth) - 2025E: 651 million (23.2% growth) - 2026E: 789 million (21.1% growth) [2] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2023A: 0.50 - 2024E: 0.61 - 2025E: 0.75 - 2026E: 0.91 [2] - Valuation Ratios: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: - 2024E: 16 - 2025E: 13 - 2026E: 11 [2] - Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio: - 2024E: 2.8 - 2025E: 2.3 - 2026E: 1.9 [2] Operational Performance - The company reported a gross margin of 25.2% in Q4 2023, an increase of 3.5 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a significant reduction in raw milk costs [140]. - The report notes that the company is actively optimizing its product and channel structure, which is expected to drive revenue growth above industry averages [140].