产品结构升级，省外核心市场加速拓展

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Shanxi Fenjiu [2][7] Core Viewpoints - The company is experiencing product structure upgrades with an increasing proportion of mid-to-high-end liquor sales, achieving a 46% sales share for the Qinghua series in 2023 [5][7] - The company is expanding its core markets outside of Shanxi, with significant growth in e-commerce channels, achieving over 30% growth in core markets south of the Yangtze River [5][7] - The company has demonstrated strong profitability with a gross margin of 75.3% in 2023 and an increase to 77.5% in Q1 2024 [5][7] Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company reported revenue of 31.9 billion yuan, a 22% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 10.4 billion yuan, up 29% [4][10] - For Q1 2024, revenue reached 15.3 billion yuan, a 21% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 6.3 billion yuan, up 30% [4][10] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 43.70 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 5.3 billion yuan [4][10] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue is projected to grow to 38.3 billion yuan in 2024, 45.9 billion yuan in 2025, and 54.4 billion yuan in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.1%, 19.7%, and 18.6% respectively [6][10] - Net profit is expected to reach 13.1 billion yuan in 2024, 16.0 billion yuan in 2025, and 19.3 billion yuan in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 25.2%, 22.3%, and 21.0% respectively [6][10] Profitability Metrics - The company maintains a gross margin of 75.3% in 2023, projected to increase to 76.9% in 2024 and 78.9% by 2026 [11] - The net profit margin is expected to rise from 32.7% in 2023 to 34.1% in 2024 and further to 35.5% in 2026 [11] Valuation Ratios - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 28.7 in 2023 to 22.9 in 2024, and further down to 15.5 by 2026 [11] - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to decline from 10.8 in 2023 to 8.1 in 2024, reaching 4.9 by 2026 [11]