北方国际2024年一季报点评：净利增36%超预期，受益蒙古焦煤板块及汇兑收益

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 19.30 CNY, corresponding to a PE ratio of 17.7 times for 2024 [3][5]. Core Views - The company reported a net profit increase of 36% in Q1 2024, exceeding expectations, driven by the performance of the Mongolian coal segment and foreign exchange gains [5]. - The company has established a strong international marketing network and has demonstrated excellent global resource allocation and project management capabilities [3]. - The company aims to deepen its investment and acquisition efforts in the Central and Eastern European power market through a wholly-owned subsidiary in Hungary [5]. Financial Summary - Income Statement: - Total revenue is projected to grow from 13,433 million CNY in 2022 to 21,488 million CNY in 2023, and further to 22,517 million CNY in 2024 [3]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 636 million CNY in 2022 to 918 million CNY in 2023, reaching 1,087 million CNY in 2024 [3]. - Balance Sheet: - Cash and cash equivalents are forecasted to decrease from 4,981 million CNY in 2022 to 4,093 million CNY in 2023, then increase to 4,621 million CNY in 2024 [3]. - Total assets are projected to grow from 22,080 million CNY in 2022 to 23,760 million CNY in 2023, and further to 25,140 million CNY in 2024 [3]. - Cash Flow Statement: - Free cash flow is expected to rise significantly from 303 million CNY in 2022 to 464 million CNY in 2023, and further to 1,150 million CNY in 2024 [3]. - Operating cash flow is projected to increase from 738 million CNY in 2022 to 702 million CNY in 2023, and then to 1,681 million CNY in 2024 [3]. Growth Metrics - Revenue growth rate is expected to be 2.9% in 2022, 60.0% in 2023, and 4.8% in 2024 [3]. - Net profit growth rate is projected at 2.0% in 2022, 44.3% in 2023, and 18.4% in 2024 [3]. Valuation Ratios - The company’s PE ratio is expected to decrease from 19.23 in 2022 to 13.33 in 2023, and further to 11.25 in 2024 [3]. - The PB ratio is projected to decline from 1.58 in 2022 to 1.45 in 2023, and then to 1.30 in 2024 [3]. Market Performance - The stock price has fluctuated between 9.26 CNY and 20.10 CNY over the past 52 weeks, with a market capitalization of 12,235 million CNY [3].