2023年年报点评：聚焦现金流

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Poly Developments (600048) with a target price of 12.80 CNY, down from the previous forecast of 20.66 CNY [4][12]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 346.8 billion CNY in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 23.4%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 34.1% to 12.1 billion CNY. The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2024 and 2025 have been revised down to 0.95 CNY and 1.01 CNY, respectively, with a new estimate for 2026 at 1.10 CNY [2][3]. - The company has recognized approximately 5 billion CNY in impairments, leading to a record low profit margin of 3.5%. The gross profit margin has declined by 5.99 percentage points to 16.0% [2][3]. - The company plans to increase new construction starts by 20.7% in 2024, while the planned completions will decrease by 16.1% to 34 million square meters [2][3]. - The cash dividend payout ratio for the next two years is expected to be no less than 40%, with a projected dividend yield of around 4.8% in 2024 [2][3]. Financial Summary - In 2023, the company achieved an operating income of 346.9 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 23%. The operating profit (EBIT) was 26.9 billion CNY, down 22% from the previous year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 12.1 billion CNY, reflecting a 34% decrease [3][8]. - The projected financials for 2024 include a revenue of 323.6 billion CNY, a decrease of 7%, and an EBIT of 26.0 billion CNY, a slight decline of 3% [3][8]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to decline to 5.5% in 2024, with a gradual recovery to 6.0% by 2026 [3][8]. Market Data - The company's market capitalization is approximately 96.2 billion CNY, with a current price of 8.04 CNY per share [5][12]. - The stock has traded within a range of 7.90 to 14.76 CNY over the past 52 weeks [5][12].