DFDR(SZ:300217) Guotai Junan Securities·2024-04-26 05:32Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of 6.20 yuan, unchanged from the previous rating [2][54]. Core Views - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in demand in 2024, which is anticipated to improve its financial performance. The report forecasts net profits for 2024-2026 to be 468 million, 558 million, and 623 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.32, 0.38, and 0.42 yuan, reflecting year-on-year changes of -27% (non-recurring profit +16%), +19%, and +12% [54]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - The company's 2023 revenue reached 4.106 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.52%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 644 million yuan, up 113.28% year-on-year. The fourth quarter of 2023 saw revenue of 869 million yuan, down 24.55% year-on-year, and net profit of 59 million yuan, down 10.63% year-on-year [10][54]. Revenue Breakdown - In 2023, revenue contributions from various segments were as follows: home appliance PTC down 3%, new energy vehicle PTC up 23%, new energy equipment manufacturing up 35%, optical communication materials down 31%, and lithium battery materials down 23%. The growth in pre-plated nickel materials was below expectations due to slower-than-anticipated demand for large cylindrical batteries [10][11]. Profitability Analysis - The report highlights significant structural improvements in the PTC business. The average selling price of home appliance PTC products increased by 2.8% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 19.4%, up 2.5 percentage points. The gross margin for new energy vehicle PTC products reached 24.2%, up 2.3 percentage points, benefiting from a higher proportion of water heating products [44][45]. Cash Flow Performance - The company's operating cash flow showed a significant decline, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 63 million yuan in 2023, down 90.86% year-on-year. The fourth quarter of 2023 recorded a negative cash flow of 10 million yuan, a decrease of 130.63% year-on-year [36][48].