国金证券2023年报及2024一季报点评：投行业务承压，一季度自营高基数导致业绩同比下降

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Guojin Securities is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The investment banking business is under pressure, leading to a year-on-year decline in performance due to high base effects in proprietary trading [2] - In 2023, the company's operating revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders were 6.73 billion and 1.72 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 17.4% and 43.4% [2] - For Q1 2024, operating revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders were 1.48 billion and 370 million yuan, showing year-on-year declines of 24.0% and 38.6% [2] - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2024-2025 to 1.8 billion and 2.1 billion yuan, down from previous estimates of 2.2 billion and 2.6 billion yuan [2] - The company maintains a strong brand advantage in investment banking and is committed to a strategy driven by investment banking while enhancing business collaboration [2] Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company achieved a weighted average ROE of 5.39%, up by 1.22 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company’s dividend payout ratio reached 30% in 2023, significantly higher than the historical average of 11.3% over the past five years [2] - The company’s total market capitalization is 30.48 billion yuan, with a circulating market capitalization of 26.27 billion yuan [2] - The current stock price is 8.21 yuan, with a 52-week high of 11.50 yuan and a low of 7.58 yuan [2] Business Segment Performance - Investment banking net income for 2023 and Q1 2024 was 1.34 billion and 230 million yuan, respectively, down 21% and 43% year-on-year [2] - The company’s IPO income for 2023 and Q1 2024 was 590 million and 40 million yuan, reflecting declines of 40% and 43% year-on-year [2] - The brokerage segment's net income for 2023 and Q1 2024 was 1.65 billion and 380 million yuan, showing slight declines of 0.1% and 1.3% year-on-year [2] - The company’s asset management business reported net income of 90 million and 20 million yuan for 2023 and Q1 2024, down 32.1% and 8.8% year-on-year [2] Financial Ratios and Projections - The company’s projected EPS for 2024-2026 is 0.49, 0.56, and 0.66 yuan, respectively [3] - The projected P/E ratios for 2024-2026 are 17.2, 14.9, and 12.8 times, while the P/B ratios are 0.9, 0.9, and 0.8 times [3] - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 31.6% in 2023 to 36.3% by 2026 [3] - The net profit margin is projected to increase from 25.5% in 2023 to 29.2% by 2026 [3]