Yunnan Aluminium (SZ:000807) GF SECURITIES·2024-04-26 06:32Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target price of 19.50 CNY per share, compared to the current price of 14.35 CNY per share [3]. Core Views - In Q1 2024, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 20% quarter-on-quarter but met expectations. The company reported a revenue of 11.4 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 20%, and a net profit of 1.164 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 32% [1]. - The decline in Q1 performance was primarily due to reduced production of electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan and rising costs of alumina and electricity [1]. - The company expects an increase in electrolytic aluminum production in Q2 2024, as Yunnan province has lifted load management restrictions on electricity usage [1]. Financial Summary - For Q1 2024, the company produced 365,600 tons of alumina, a year-on-year increase of 2.16%, and 636,900 tons of primary aluminum, a year-on-year increase of 23.3% [1]. - The estimated cost per ton of electrolytic aluminum increased by 1,399 CNY, leading to a decrease in gross profit per ton by 1,267 CNY [1]. - The company forecasts EPS of 1.39 CNY, 1.41 CNY, and 1.47 CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with a reference PE of 14 times for 2024 [1][2].