Eastern Air Logistics (SH:601156) Huachuang Securities·2024-04-26 06:32Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company achieved a net profit of 2.49 billion in 2023, with Q4 profit of 820 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 18.7%. The report remains optimistic about the high demand for cross-border air logistics amid the platform's international expansion [1] - The company's total revenue for 2023 was 20.62 billion, a decrease of 12.1% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company fell by 31.6% [1] - The report highlights the strong growth potential of the company as a key air transport resource from China to Europe and the United States, with a favorable supply-demand structure expected to maintain high freight rates [1][2] Financial Performance Summary - 2023 Financials: - Total revenue: 20.62 billion, down 12.1% year-on-year - Net profit: 2.49 billion, down 31.6% - Q4 revenue: 6.39 billion, up 10.1% year-on-year - Q4 net profit: 820 million, up 18.7% [1][2] - Business Segments: - Air Express Business: - Revenue: 9.12 billion, down 31.37% - Gross margin: 24.58%, down 10.41 percentage points - Ground Integrated Services: - Revenue: 2.37 billion, up 0.55% - Gross margin: 40.48%, up 21.97 percentage points - Integrated Logistics Solutions: - Revenue: 9.12 billion, up 16.74% - Gross margin: 13.52%, down 4.54 percentage points [1][2] Profit Forecast - The report adjusts the profit forecast for 2024-2025, expecting net profits of 3.38 billion and 3.69 billion respectively, with an introduction of a 2026 forecast of 3.99 billion. The corresponding EPS for 2024-2026 is projected to be 2.13, 2.32, and 2.51 respectively [1][2] Valuation - The target price is set at 23.2 yuan, with a current price of 18.18 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 28% from the current price. The report applies a 10x valuation based on the cyclical stock's performance [1][4]