主营业务量价齐升,“煤+电+铝”布局未来可期

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy (Maintain)" [4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 26.846 billion yuan in 2023, a slight increase of 0.2% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.560 billion yuan, which represents a growth of 14.39% year-on-year. The projected net profit for 2024 is 4.920 billion yuan [1][2]. - The company's coal business showed growth in both volume and price, with coal production reaching 46.55 million tons in 2023, up 1.19% year-on-year, and a comprehensive coal price of 196 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.51% year-on-year [1]. - The electrolytic aluminum business demonstrated resilience, with production of 875,100 tons in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 1.34%, and an average selling price of 16,312 yuan/ton, up 6.6% year-on-year [1]. - The power generation business saw significant growth, with a total power generation of 870,049 million kWh in 2023, an increase of 2.47% year-on-year, and a sales volume of 816,480 million kWh, up 5.62% year-on-year [1]. Financial Summary - The company achieved a net profit of 4.560 billion yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year growth rate of 14.4%. The projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 5.592 billion yuan, 6.037 billion yuan, and 6.501 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 7.6, 7.0, and 6.5 [2][3]. - The company's revenue is expected to decline slightly to 26.565 billion yuan in 2024, followed by a recovery to 26.997 billion yuan in 2025 and 27.557 billion yuan in 2026 [3][11]. - The company's EPS for 2023 was 2.03 yuan, with projections of 2.49 yuan for 2024, 2.69 yuan for 2025, and 2.90 yuan for 2026 [3][11]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) for 2023 was 14.6%, with projections of 16.3% for 2024, 15.2% for 2025, and 14.5% for 2026 [11].