Zhujiang Brewery(SZ:002461) Southwest Securities·2024-04-26 08:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Zhujiang Beer (002461) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.11 billion yuan in Q1 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 7%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 120 million yuan, up 39.4% year-on-year, and the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 104 million yuan, reflecting a 45.8% increase year-on-year, exceeding market expectations [2] - The high-end product segment showed steady growth, with a 15.1% year-on-year increase in high-end beer sales. The average price per ton increased by 6.2% year-on-year to 4,201 yuan/ton, driven by the rising sales of premium products [2] - The company is expected to benefit from a favorable cost trend and a strong consumer base in South China, with significant room for product structure upgrades. The "3+N" brand strategy for high-end products is clear, and the company aims to increase the market share of its premium offerings [2] Financial Summary - For 2024, the expected earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.34 yuan, with dynamic price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 24 times, 21 times, and 18 times for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [3] - The forecasted revenue for 2024 is 5.378 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 7.88%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 624 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 19.47% [4] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to increase from 6.41% in 2023 to 7.24% in 2024, indicating improved profitability [4]