PDH(SH:600048) Southwest Securities·2024-04-26 08:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 9.69 CNY over the next six months [1][10]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 346.8 billion CNY in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 23.4%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 34.1% to 12.1 billion CNY. The gross profit margin for the year was 16.0%, down by 6.0 percentage points [2][3]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 4.10 CNY per 10 shares, reflecting a dividend payout ratio of 42.4% [2]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In 2023, the company recorded sales of 422.2 billion CNY, leading the industry, with a sales area of 23.86 million square meters. The focus on core cities contributed to nearly 90% of sales from 38 key cities, which saw a year-on-year increase of 2 percentage points in market share [2][3]. - The company’s market share rose to 3.6%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, with a market share of 6.8% in the core 38 cities, up by 0.7 percentage points [2]. Land Reserve and Resource Optimization - The company expanded its project portfolio with 103 new projects in 2023, with a total land cost of 163.2 billion CNY, marking a 26% increase year-on-year. The proportion of equity land cost increased by 16 percentage points to 83% [2][3]. - The total land reserve is 77.9 million square meters, with a decreasing share of existing projects, now at 85% [2]. Financial Structure and Cost Management - The company’s asset-liability ratio, excluding advance receipts, was 67.14%, down by 1.34 percentage points, while the net debt ratio decreased to 61.20%, down by 2.37 percentage points. The cash-to-short-term debt ratio stood at 1.28 [3]. - The company achieved a cash inflow of 430.4 billion CNY from sales, with a sales recovery rate of 102%, and a net cash flow from operating activities of 13.9 billion CNY, maintaining positive cash flow for six consecutive years [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to have a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.6% in net profit attributable to shareholders from 2024 to 2026. The estimated price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2024 is set at 8.5 times, supporting the target price of 9.69 CNY [3][10].