2024Q1季报点评：收入符合预期，期待弹性重现

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported Q1 2024 revenue of 2.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.1%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 550 million yuan, down 3.4% year-on-year [3] - Revenue structure is under pressure, with Q1 liquor revenue at 1.96 billion yuan, up 3% year-on-year, and mid-to-high-end liquor and ordinary liquor revenues at 1.73 billion yuan and 240 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 3.3% and 0.9% [3] - The company aims to optimize its cost structure, with a net profit margin of 26.1%, down 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, and a gross margin of 74.2%, down 4.2 percentage points year-on-year [3] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company is expected to maintain resilience in performance despite external pressures, with projected net profits for 2024-2026 at 2.05 billion, 2.49 billion, and 3.06 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 16%, 22%, and 23%, respectively [4] - Corresponding P/E ratios are projected to be 14, 11, and 9 times for the same periods [4] Revenue and Profitability - The company’s total revenue for 2022 was 6.056 billion yuan, increasing to 7.081 billion yuan in 2023, with forecasts of 8.185 billion yuan in 2024, 9.634 billion yuan in 2025, and 11.456 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [2][4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2022 was 1.685 billion yuan, with projections of 1.771 billion yuan in 2023, 2.050 billion yuan in 2024, 2.492 billion yuan in 2025, and 3.058 billion yuan in 2026 [2][4] Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on a multi-product strategy and maintaining active channel development, with plans to strengthen its brand and market presence in 38 key cities [3] - The company emphasizes price stability and aims for both volume and price increases, while also enhancing its product offerings and market strategies [3]