Zhuzhou Kibing (SH:601636) Soochow Securities·2024-04-26 09:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 15.683 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 17.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.751 billion yuan, up 33.0% year-on-year [8] - The profitability of float glass shows resilience, while photovoltaic glass is accelerating in volume [9][10] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 3.3 yuan per 10 shares, with a cash dividend payout ratio of 50.44% [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2023 and Q1 2024, the company achieved revenues of 4.498 billion yuan and 3.857 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 29.5% and 23.2% [8] - The float glass segment saw a 6% increase in sales volume in 2023, with a gross profit per box of 21.6 yuan, up 3.1 yuan year-on-year [9] - The photovoltaic glass segment sold 19.408 million square meters in 2023, a 201.7% increase, generating revenue of 3.412 billion yuan, up 114.1% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 21.5%, an increase of 12.3 percentage points [9][10] Cost and Expenses - The company's expense ratio for 2023 was 11.1%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, with financial expenses rising by 142 million yuan due to increased borrowing and reduced foreign exchange gains [10] - The asset impairment loss for 2023 was 153 million yuan, primarily due to inventory write-downs and fixed asset impairments [10] Capital Expenditure and Growth - The company maintained strong capital expenditure, with cash payments for fixed assets and other long-term assets of 17.13 billion yuan and 11.79 billion yuan in Q4 2023 and Q1 2024, respectively, reflecting ongoing investment in photovoltaic and electronic glass segments [10] - The photovoltaic glass segment is expected to become a new growth driver, with revenue contribution increasing to 23.3% in 2023, and a gross profit of 756 million yuan, up 287% year-on-year [11] Profit Forecast and Investment Outlook - The company is expected to maintain excess profits in the float glass segment due to cost advantages from resource reserves and raw material procurement [12] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders is 1.95 billion yuan for 2024 and 1.97 billion yuan for 2025, with a new forecast of 2.61 billion yuan for 2026 [12] - The closing price on April 25 corresponds to a P/E ratio of 10, 10, and 8 times for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, maintaining an "Accumulate" rating [12]