NHD(SZ:002946) Minsheng Securities·2024-04-26 14:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with projected net profits for 2024-2026 being CNY 534 million, CNY 654 million, and CNY 793 million respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 24.0%, 22.3%, and 21.3% [9]. Core Insights - The company achieved a total revenue of CNY 10.987 billion in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 9.8%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 431 million, representing a growth of 19.3% [9]. - The first quarter of 2024 showed a revenue of CNY 2.614 billion and a net profit of CNY 90 million, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.66% and 46.93% respectively [9]. - The company is focusing on high-end fresh milk and specialty yogurt, with high-end fresh milk products experiencing a growth rate of 40% [9]. - The direct-to-consumer (DTC) business is expected to grow over 15% in 2024, with e-commerce sales increasing by over 40% [9]. Financial Performance - The gross profit margin for 2023 was 26.87%, an increase of 2.84 percentage points year-on-year. The gross margin for liquid milk was 28.76%, up by 2.7 percentage points [9]. - The company’s sales and management expense ratios were 15.28% and 4.28% respectively in 2023, with the sales expense ratio increasing due to heightened brand promotion and media advertising [9]. - The net profit margin for 2023 was 3.92%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.31 percentage points [9]. Revenue Breakdown - In 2023, the revenue from liquid milk, milk powder, and other products was CNY 9.755 billion, CNY 790 million, and CNY 1.153 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.15%, 11.28%, and -0.53% [9]. - The company’s revenue by region showed significant growth in North China, with a year-on-year increase of 39.03% [9]. Future Projections - The report forecasts total revenues of CNY 11.514 billion, CNY 12.336 billion, and CNY 13.167 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 4.80%, 7.13%, and 6.74% [12]. - The projected earnings per share for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are CNY 0.62, CNY 0.75, and CNY 0.92 respectively [12].