2023年报及2024Q1点评：青花凤举云飞，盈利稳步提升

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shanxi Fenjiu is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved revenue and net profit of 31.93 billion and 10.44 billion yuan in 2023, representing year-on-year growth of 22% and 29% respectively. The fourth quarter of 2023 saw revenue and net profit of 5.18 billion and 1.01 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 27% and 2% [3] - In the first quarter of 2024, revenue and net profit reached 15.34 billion and 6.26 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 21% and 30% [3] - The company is expected to continue its strong performance, with a projected net profit of 13.28 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 27% [4] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is forecasted to grow from 31.93 billion yuan in 2023 to 38.63 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 21% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 10.44 billion yuan in 2023 to 13.28 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 27% [2] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from 8.56 yuan in 2023 to 10.89 yuan in 2024 [2] Product Performance - The revenue from the Qinghua product line exceeded 14 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of over 30%, accounting for 46% of total revenue [3] - The mid-tier product line generated over 8 billion yuan in revenue, with a growth rate of around 20% [3] - The Glass Fenjiu product line maintained a revenue of over 7 billion yuan, with a growth rate of approximately 15% [3] Cost and Profitability - The sales net profit margin improved by 1.6 percentage points to 32.8% in 2023, primarily due to a reduction in sales expenses [3] - The gross profit margin increased by 1.9 percentage points, attributed to product mix improvement and price increases [4] - The company’s cash flow from operations in the first quarter of 2024 showed strong performance, with a collection rate of over 45% in domestic markets [4] Market Data - The closing price of the stock is 245.58 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 299.6 billion yuan [6] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is currently at 28.70 [6] Financial Health - The total assets are projected to grow from 44.1 billion yuan in 2023 to 56.4 billion yuan in 2024 [12] - The debt-to-asset ratio stands at 31.51% [7] - The net asset value per share is 27.95 yuan [7]