2024一季报点评：业绩符合预期，免税项目继续爬坡

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Wangfujing (600859) [1] Core Views - Wangfujing's Q1 2024 performance met expectations, with revenue of 3.308 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 202 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.9% [3] - The gross profit margin in Q1 was 41.2%, down 1.6 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to the cultivation period of new projects and the impact of high-rent projects under the new leasing standards [3] - The Wanning duty-free project continues to grow, with revenue from the duty-free business reaching 120 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 117% [3] - The company plans to repurchase shares worth 100-200 million yuan at a price not exceeding 17.50 yuan per share and will distribute a cash dividend of 227 million yuan, with a cash dividend ratio of 32% [3] - Wangfujing is expected to achieve net profit attributable to the parent company of 854 million yuan, 1.004 billion yuan, and 1.153 billion yuan in 2024-2026, with corresponding PE valuations of 18, 15, and 13 times [3] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Revenue is expected to grow from 12.224 billion yuan in 2023 to 14.591 billion yuan in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.21%, 5.51%, and 4.54% respectively [2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 709.38 million yuan in 2023 to 1.153 billion yuan in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.40%, 17.53%, and 14.90% respectively [2] - EPS is expected to increase from 0.62 yuan in 2023 to 1.02 yuan in 2026 [2] - The P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 21.68 times in 2023 to 13.33 times in 2026 [2] Business Segments - In Q1 2024, revenue from department stores/shopping centers/outlets/supermarkets/specialty stores/duty-free businesses was 1.44 billion yuan, 670 million yuan, 590 million yuan, 80 million yuan, 380 million yuan, and 120 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -11%, 3.5%, 9.5%, -31%, -5%, and 117% [3] - The gross profit margins for these segments were 35%, 45%, 65%, 17%, 18%, and 18% respectively [3] Financial Position - The company's total assets are expected to increase from 41.122 billion yuan in 2023 to 44.677 billion yuan in 2026 [8] - The debt-to-asset ratio is expected to decrease from 50.30% in 2023 to 47.14% in 2026 [8] - The net cash flow from operating activities is expected to increase from 3.604 billion yuan in 2023 to 4.256 billion yuan in 2026 [9] Market Data - The closing price of Wangfujing's stock is 13.55 yuan, with a price-to-book ratio of 0.78 [5] - The total market capitalization is 15.379 billion yuan, and the circulating A-share market capitalization is 14.816 billion yuan [5] - The net asset per share is 17.38 yuan, and the total share capital is 1.135 billion shares [6]