SCIE(SH:600546) Minsheng Securities·2024-04-27 03:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3][4]. Core Views - The company's performance in Q1 2024 was below expectations due to a decline in both coal prices and production/sales volume, leading to a significant drop in revenue and net profit [2][3]. - The company plans to produce no less than 33 million tons of coal in 2024, with projected net profits for 2024-2026 estimated at 3.613 billion, 4.709 billion, and 4.984 billion yuan respectively, translating to EPS of 1.82, 2.38, and 2.51 yuan per share [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2024, the company reported revenue of 6.356 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 40.31%, and a net profit of 583 million yuan, down 65.81% year-on-year [2]. - The company's coal production was 7.5146 million tons, a decrease of 29.30% year-on-year, while coal sales volume was 9.2947 million tons, down 25.09% year-on-year [2][3]. - The average selling price of coal was 667.17 yuan per ton, a decrease of 21.33% year-on-year, but an increase of 5.60% quarter-on-quarter [2][3]. - The gross profit margin per ton of coal was 32.82%, down 14.73 percentage points year-on-year, but slightly up 0.17 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2][3]. Production and Sales Summary - Self-produced coal sales dropped significantly by 43.74% year-on-year to 5.4615 million tons, with a selling price of 662.31 yuan per ton, down 17.11% year-on-year [2][3]. - Trade coal sales increased by 41.90% year-on-year to 3.8332 million tons, although it saw a quarter-on-quarter decline of 26.14% [3]. Future Projections - The company expects a gradual recovery in production and sales, with a projected increase in net profit margins in the coming years [3][4]. - The estimated PE ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 8, 6, and 6 times respectively, based on the closing price on April 26, 2024 [4].