IMDTECL(SZ:002128) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2024-04-27 12:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company's performance in 2023 was boosted by rising coal and aluminum prices, with a focus on the growth potential in coal, aluminum, and electricity sectors [2] - The company reported a revenue of 26.846 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.560 billion yuan, up 14.4% year-on-year [2] - The company is expected to benefit from the rebound in coal and aluminum prices, with profit forecasts for 2024-2026 set at 5.034 billion, 5.321 billion, and 5.957 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 10.4%, 5.7%, and 11.9% [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 7.115 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.1%, but a net profit of 975 million yuan, down 2.7% quarter-on-quarter [2] - The coal production for 2023 was 46.5474 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.19%, with a coal price of 204 yuan per ton, up 6.6% year-on-year [2] - The aluminum production was 875,100 tons, with a price decline leading to a decrease in profitability [2] Business Outlook - The company is actively expanding its renewable energy business, with an expected increase in installed capacity to over 10 million kilowatts by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan [2] - The dividend payout ratio for 2023 was 37.35%, an increase of 9.24 percentage points from 2022, indicating a potential for continued dividend growth [2] Valuation Metrics - The current stock price is 19.38 yuan, with a market capitalization of 43.442 billion yuan [3] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 2.25, 2.37, and 2.66 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 8.6, 8.2, and 7.3 [6]