QILU BANK(601665) 信达证券·2024-04-27 12:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qilu Bank (601665) [1] Core Views - Qilu Bank demonstrated strong performance in 2023 and Q1 2024, with significant growth in revenue and net profit [1] - The bank's ROE improved, and its core capital was further strengthened [1] - Asset expansion remained robust, with total assets exceeding 600 billion yuan, growing by 19.6% YoY in 2023 [1] - The bank's loan portfolio grew steadily, with corporate loans driving the growth, increasing by around 20% YoY [1] - Qilu Bank's asset quality improved, with the non-performing loan ratio declining to 1.25% in Q1 2024 [1] - The bank's core tier-1 capital adequacy ratio increased to 10.23% in Q1 2024, supported by internal profit retention and convertible bond issuance [2] Financial Performance - In 2023, Qilu Bank achieved operating revenue of 11.95 billion yuan, up 8.03% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.23 billion yuan, up 18.02% YoY [1] - In Q1 2024, operating revenue reached 3.02 billion yuan, up 5.53% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.18 billion yuan, up 15.98% YoY [1] - The bank's weighted average ROE was 12.90% in 2023, up 0.98 percentage points YoY, and 12.25% in Q1 2024, up 0.9 percentage points YoY [1] - The dividend payout ratio increased to 26.7% in 2023, up 1.2 percentage points from 2022 [1] Asset and Loan Growth - Total assets grew by 19.6% YoY in 2023, reaching over 600 billion yuan, and continued to expand by 18.1% YoY in Q1 2024 [1] - Loan growth remained strong, with total loans exceeding 300 billion yuan in 2023, up 16.7% YoY, and 15.8% YoY in Q1 2024 [1] - Corporate loans were the primary driver, with growth rates around 20% YoY in both 2023 and Q1 2024 [1] Asset Quality and Capital Adequacy - The non-performing loan ratio decreased to 1.26% at the end of 2023, down 3 basis points YoY, and further declined to 1.25% in Q1 2024 [1] - The provision coverage ratio improved to 303.58% at the end of 2023, up 22.52 percentage points YoY, and reached 304.8% in Q1 2024 [1] - Core tier-1 capital adequacy ratio increased to 10.16% at the end of 2023, up 43 basis points from Q3 2023, and further rose to 10.23% in Q1 2024 [2] Future Outlook - The report forecasts net profit attributable to shareholders to grow by 18.68%, 18.85%, and 20.90% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2] - EPS is projected to be 1.07 yuan, 1.27 yuan, and 1.53 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2] - The bank is expected to benefit from regional economic growth, digital transformation, and increased credit demand, supporting stable revenue growth [1][2] Financial Metrics - Operating revenue is expected to grow to 13.29 billion yuan, 15.12 billion yuan, and 17.50 billion yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [3] - Net interest income is projected to increase to 9.87 billion yuan, 11.03 billion yuan, and 12.31 billion yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [7] - The cost-to-income ratio is expected to remain stable at around 26.5% in 2024 and 2025, before declining to 25% in 2026 [9]