NHD(SZ:002946) Guoyuan Securities·2024-04-28 01:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3]. Core Views - The company focuses on low-temperature fresh milk, with a 54% year-on-year increase in net profit excluding non-recurring items in Q3 [9]. - The company's revenue for 2023 is projected to be 10.99 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.80% [9]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 5.61 billion yuan, 7.09 billion yuan, and 8.56 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with growth rates of 30.24%, 26.36%, and 20.78% [9]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 is 10,987.29 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 9.80% [5]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is 430.83 million yuan, reflecting a 19.27% increase year-on-year [5]. - The company's gross profit margin for 2023 is 26.87%, up 2.84 percentage points year-on-year [9]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) for 2023 is 16.85% [5]. Business Performance - The liquid milk and milk powder segments showed steady growth, with revenues of 9,755 million yuan and 790 million yuan respectively, both increasing by over 11% year-on-year [9]. - The company’s distribution channels have expanded, with a 42.74% year-on-year increase in distributor revenue in the second half of 2023 [9]. - The company has launched new products, with new product revenue accounting for 12% of total revenue in 2023 [9]. Market Position - The company has maintained a strong market share in the fresh milk segment, with a nearly 40% year-on-year growth in its high-end product line [9]. - The company’s online direct sales revenue increased by 20.51% year-on-year, indicating robust growth in e-commerce channels [9]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with projected revenues of 12.22 billion yuan, 13.48 billion yuan, and 14.73 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [5]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 15 in 2024 to 10 in 2026, indicating potential for value appreciation [9].