2023年业绩承压，分红比例提升

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company's 2023 performance was under pressure due to declining gross margins and impairment provisions, but the dividend payout ratio significantly increased [1][2]. - The company remains a leader in sales and land acquisition within the industry, with an optimized land reserve structure [1][2]. - The financial structure has improved, with a continuous reduction in financing costs [2]. Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported operating revenue of 346.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.4%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 12.07 billion yuan, a decrease of 34.1% [1][3]. - The gross margin fell by 6 percentage points to 16%, and the net investment income decreased by 47.3% to 2.21 billion yuan [1]. - The company declared a cash dividend of 4.86 billion yuan, with a payout ratio of 40.3%, an increase of 11 percentage points year-on-year [1]. Sales and Land Acquisition - The company achieved sales of 422.2 billion yuan in 2023, a decrease of 7.7%, maintaining the top sales ranking in the industry [1]. - The total land acquisition cost was 163.2 billion yuan, with a land acquisition intensity of 38.7%, an increase of 3.4 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The company expanded 103 projects in 2023, with a focus on core cities, where 99% of the expansion amount was concentrated [1]. Financial Structure - As of the end of 2023, total assets were 1,436.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.3% year-on-year, while total liabilities were 1,099.9 billion yuan, down 4.3% [2]. - The company’s net debt ratio improved to 61.2%, a decrease of 2.4 percentage points from the beginning of the year [2]. - The comprehensive financing cost was 3.56%, down 36 basis points from the previous year [2]. Earnings Forecast - The report adjusts the earnings forecast for 2024, 2025, and 2026, predicting operating revenues of 353.8 billion yuan, 347.7 billion yuan, and 332.0 billion yuan, respectively [2][3]. - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for the same years is 12.6 billion yuan, 13.5 billion yuan, and 13.5 billion yuan, respectively [2][3].