业绩释放支撑市值，格局改善提供进一步弹性

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 40.924 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 21.54%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 341 million yuan, up 18.41% year-on-year [2] - For Q1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 10.132 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.87%, with a net profit of 190 million yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 43.20% [2] - The report highlights that the company is expected to benefit from an improved industry landscape and the decline of tail-end express services, which will further enhance its operational flexibility [4] Financial Performance Summary - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 40.924 billion yuan in 2023 to 62.948 billion yuan by 2026, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 21.5%, 20.2%, 14.9%, and 11.3% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to increase from 341 million yuan in 2023 to 1.146 billion yuan in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 18.4%, 95.0%, 31.0%, and 31.7% [6] - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 4.2% in 2023 to 5.5% in 2026, indicating enhanced profitability [6] Market Position and Industry Outlook - The report anticipates that the company's market share will slightly decline from 13.3% in 2023 to 12.6% in 2024, before recovering to 13.1% in 2025 and 13.4% in 2026 [18] - The overall industry volume is projected to grow from 1,320.7 million pieces in 2023 to 2,025.9 million pieces by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 19.4% [18] - The company is expected to maintain a competitive edge through improvements in capacity, cost management, and service quality [14]