LIUGONG(SZ:000528) SINOLINK SECURITIES·2024-04-28 02:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 7.939 billion RMB in Q1 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 1.88%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 498 million RMB, up 58.03% year-on-year, and the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is expected to be 457 million RMB, reflecting a 67.08% increase year-on-year, exceeding market expectations [1] - The company's overseas revenue accounted for over 50% in Q1 2024, with significant growth in international markets, which enhances overall profitability. The gross margin for overseas markets reached 27.74% in 2023, surpassing domestic margins by 11.86 percentage points [2] - The company has diversified its business, reducing reliance on cyclical industries. The sales revenue from aerial work machinery increased by 112% year-on-year in 2023, and the share of earthmoving machinery revenue decreased from over 70% in 2020 to 58% in 2023 [2] - The company maintains a strong market position, with the loader market share remaining the highest in the industry and excavator sales growth outpacing the industry by over 20 percentage points, achieving a historical high in market share [2] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The report adjusts the profit forecast, estimating revenues of 30.619 billion RMB, 34.282 billion RMB, and 38.921 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 1.536 billion RMB, 1.982 billion RMB, and 2.490 billion RMB for the same years, corresponding to P/E ratios of 14, 11, and 8 times [2][6]