PDH(SH:600048) EBSCN·2024-04-28 02:32Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company achieved an operating revenue of 346.8 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 23.4%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 34.1% to 12.1 billion yuan [1] - The company has maintained positive operating cash flow for six consecutive years, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 13.9 billion yuan in 2023 [1] - The company has a strong land reserve, with a total land acquisition cost of 163.2 billion yuan in 2023, 99% of which is located in key cities [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported a revenue of 346.8 billion yuan, with real estate sales contributing 322.5 billion yuan, reflecting a 25.7% increase year-on-year [1] - The gross profit margin for the company was 16.0%, down 6.0 percentage points from the previous year, while the net profit margin was 3.5% [1] - The company’s net profit attributable to shareholders was 12.1 billion yuan, with a decrease of 34.1% compared to the previous year [1] Market Position - The company ranked first in the industry with a sales volume of 422.2 billion yuan in 2023, a decrease of 7.7% year-on-year, and a market share of 3.6%, up 0.2 percentage points [1] - The company accelerated the sale of quality new projects, with inventory sales accounting for 61% of total sales [1] Land Reserves and Development - The company’s land reserves as of the end of 2023 amounted to 77.9 million square meters, with a focus on key cities [1] - The average pre-tax profit margin for new projects is expected to be over 15%, indicating potential for future profit margin improvement [1] Financial Health - As of the end of 2023, the company’s asset-liability ratio was 67.1%, and the net debt ratio was 61.2%, both showing a decrease from the beginning of the year [1] - The company’s cash-to-short-term debt ratio was 1.28, indicating a strong liquidity position [1] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report adjusts the EPS forecast for 2024 and 2025 to 1.04 yuan and 1.18 yuan respectively, with a new forecast for 2026 at 1.29 yuan [1] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE valuation of 7.7, 6.8, and 6.2 times for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [1]