2023年年报及2024年一季报点评： 青花引领，24Q1业绩超预期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shanxi Fenjiu (600809.SH) [4] Core Views - Shanxi Fenjiu's 2023 annual report and 2024 Q1 report show strong performance, with total revenue of 31.928 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 21.8%, and a net profit of 10.438 billion yuan, up 28.93% [2] - The company aims for a revenue growth target of around 20% for 2024, indicating a continuation of high-quality development [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor reached 23.2 billion yuan, growing by 22.6%, while other liquor categories generated 8.54 billion yuan, up 20.2% [2] - For Q1 2024, total revenue was 15.338 billion yuan, a 20.94% increase year-on-year, with net profit at 6.262 billion yuan, reflecting a 29.95% growth [2] - The sales gross margin for 2023 and Q1 2024 was 75.31% and 77.46%, respectively, showing a slight increase due to the rising proportion of the Qinghua series [3] Market Dynamics - The Qinghua series accounted for 46% of total sales in 2023, with its revenue growth significantly outpacing the company's average [2] - Revenue from domestic and foreign markets in 2023 was 12.08 billion yuan and 19.66 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 20.4% and 22.8% [2] Profitability and Cash Flow - The net profit margin for 2023 was 32.8%, increasing to 40.9% in Q1 2024, indicating improved profitability [3] - Cash flow from operating activities for Q1 2024 was 7.04 billion yuan, a 105.1% increase year-on-year, highlighting strong cash flow generation [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit in 2024 and 2025 is adjusted to 13.08 billion yuan and 15.52 billion yuan, respectively, with an EPS of 10.72 yuan and 12.72 yuan [4] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 23 for 2024, 19 for 2025, and 16 for 2026, indicating a favorable valuation [4]