安井食品23年报&24Q1点评：Q1主业超预期韧性强

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown strong resilience in its main business, with revenue and profit exceeding market expectations in both the 2023 annual report and the 2024 Q1 report [1] - The company benefits from the trend of food industrialization, with significant growth in its product lines and a notable increase in dividend payout ratio [1][2] Revenue Performance - In Q1 2024, the company reported revenue of 3.76 billion (up 17.7%) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 440 million (up 21.2%) [1] - For the full year 2023, revenue was 14.05 billion (up 15.3%) and net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.48 billion (up 34.2%) [1] - The company expects a main business growth rate of over 20% for 2024, driven by strong performance in frozen products [1] Product Breakdown - In Q1 2024, revenue growth for various product categories was as follows: frozen noodles and rice (+4.4%), frozen meat (+27.7%), frozen fish paste (+31.5%), and frozen dishes (+12.3%) [1] - The company had 39 products with over 100 million in revenue for the year 2023, contributing to stable revenue growth [1] Regional Performance - In Q1 2024, revenue growth by region was as follows: Northeast (+24.8%), North China (+19.9%), East China (+19.2%), South China (+16.8%), Central China (-0.5%), Northwest (+26.8%), Southwest (+21.8%), and overseas (+67.2%) [1] Profitability - In Q1 2024, the gross margin was 26.6% and the net profit margin was 11.7%, both showing year-on-year increases [1] - For the full year 2023, the gross margin was 23.2% and the net profit margin was 10.5%, reflecting improvements due to lower raw material costs and enhanced operational efficiency [1][2] Financial Forecast - The company forecasts revenue for 2024-2026 to be 15.9 billion, 18.1 billion, and 20.6 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.1%, 14.1%, and 13.5% [2] - Net profit for the same period is expected to be 1.7 billion, 2.0 billion, and 2.4 billion respectively, with growth rates of 15.6%, 19.9%, and 18.7% [2]