粽子稳健增长，培育第二曲线

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 33.12 CNY over the next six months [21][23]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 2.64 billion CNY in 2023, reflecting a growth of 7% year-on-year, and a net profit of 170 million CNY, up by 19.7% [21][22]. - The revenue for Q1 2024 was reported at 210 million CNY, down 4.1% compared to the previous year [21]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 10 CNY per 10 shares and a capital reserve conversion of 4 shares for every 10 shares held [21]. Revenue and Profitability Analysis - In 2023, the company’s revenue from various product lines included: - Zongzi: 1.94 billion CNY (+11.1%) - Mooncakes: 230 million CNY (-4.3%) - Meal products: 150 million CNY (+4.8%) - Egg products and pastries: 250 million CNY (-5.5%) [10][12]. - The company’s gross margin for 2023 was 36.4%, with a slight decrease of 1.1 percentage points [22]. Future Projections - Revenue is projected to grow to 2.99 billion CNY in 2024, with a growth rate of 13.6%, and further to 3.71 billion CNY by 2026 [12][23]. - The net profit forecast for 2024 is 210 million CNY, with an EPS of 1.44 CNY, and is expected to grow to 286.59 million CNY by 2026 [12][23]. Product Development and Market Strategy - The company is actively developing a "Zong+" product matrix to include baked and frozen products, catering to daily consumption and seasonal gifting [11]. - The company has initiated a share buyback plan of 60 to 100 million CNY to enhance shareholder value and support long-term growth [11]. Market Position and Competitive Analysis - The company is positioned as a leading brand in the Zongzi market, with a focus on expanding its product offerings and market share in the mooncake segment [28]. - Comparatively, the company’s PE ratio for 2024 is projected at 19 times, which is competitive within its industry [28].