23年利润承压，24Q1趋势向好

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 78.04 CNY per share, based on a 30x PE ratio for 2024 [4][24]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 5.522 billion CNY in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 10.14%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 28.01% to 757 million CNY due to various factors including unmet sales targets during major promotional events and increased costs [2][8]. - In Q1 2024, the company showed signs of recovery with a revenue of 1.097 billion CNY, up 27.06% year-on-year, and a net profit of 177 million CNY, up 11.74% year-on-year [2][8]. Financial Performance - The company's gross margin for 2023 was 73.90%, a decrease of 1.31 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin fell by 7.26 percentage points to 13.71% [2][17]. - The revenue breakdown for 2023 shows that online sales accounted for 64.57% of total revenue, with a slight decline of 0.37% year-on-year, while offline sales grew significantly by 48.87% [2][13]. Revenue Forecast - The company expects to achieve net profits of 1.102 billion CNY, 1.340 billion CNY, and 1.619 billion CNY for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, indicating a recovery trajectory [2][24]. - The projected revenue growth rates for 2024 to 2026 are 22.0%, 20.7%, and 19.3% respectively [3][27]. Brand and Product Development - The company is focusing on brand building and continuous R&D innovation, with plans to enhance its product offerings in sensitive skin care and expand its market presence through strategic partnerships and new product launches [22][23]. - The company has successfully acquired brands that will help expand its product portfolio and reach a broader customer base [22][23]. Channel Performance - The online channel's revenue is expected to recover, with growth rates projected at 23%, 21%, and 20% for the years 2024 to 2026 [24][25]. - The OMO (Online-Merge-Offline) channel is anticipated to maintain a steady growth rate of 10% annually, reflecting strong customer loyalty and engagement [24][25]. Conclusion - The report indicates a cautious optimism for the company's future performance, driven by strategic initiatives in brand development, product innovation, and channel expansion, despite the challenges faced in 2023 [2][22].