ZJJH(SH:600160) Guotai Junan Securities·2024-04-28 06:02Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 29.00, up from the previous target of 20.32 [1][2]. Core Views - The company is positioned to benefit from the ongoing recovery in the refrigerant industry, with a notable performance turnaround observed in Q1 2024. The company is a leader in the production of third-generation refrigerants, which are expected to gain from the industry's cyclical upswing [1][2]. - The report highlights an upward revision of the company's EPS forecasts for 2024 and 2025, now projected at 1.12 and 1.31 respectively, compared to previous estimates of 0.82 and 1.02 [1][2]. - The company is expected to enjoy improved profitability due to rising refrigerant prices and a recovery in market demand, with a significant year-on-year revenue growth forecasted for 2024 [1][2]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has faced performance pressure due to overcapacity in 2023 but is now seeing a turning point in Q1 2024, benefiting from the industry's recovery [1][2]. - The company holds significant quotas for third-generation refrigerants, with specific quotas for R32, R134A, R125A, and R143A being 10.78, 7.65, 6.42, and 2.07 million tons respectively [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue for Q1 2024 is reported at 54.70 billion, with a net profit of 3.10 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 19.52% and 103.34% respectively [1][2]. - The financial summary indicates a projected revenue of 23,494 million for 2024, with a net profit forecast of 3,027 million [6][7]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a comparison of the company's valuation metrics against peers, with a projected PE ratio of 25.9 for 2024, indicating a favorable valuation relative to the industry average [1][2][7]. - The company's net asset return is projected to be 15.8% for 2024, reflecting strong operational efficiency [6][7].