量价齐跌困境期，业绩底部已现

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [4] Core Views - The company is experiencing a challenging period with both volume and price declines, indicating that the bottom of its performance has been reached [1] - In Q1 2024, the company reported a revenue of 6.356 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 40.31%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 583 million yuan, down 65.81% year-on-year [1] - The coal production volume in Q1 2024 was 7.51 million tons, a decrease of 29.3% year-on-year, while the sales volume of commercial coal was 9.29 million tons, down 25.1% year-on-year [2] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue (in million yuan): - 2022: 46,394 - 2023: 37,371 - 2024E: 35,963 - 2025E: 36,528 - 2026E: 36,956 - Year-on-year growth rates: - 2022: -3.5% - 2023: -19.4% - 2024E: -3.8% - 2025E: 1.6% - 2026E: 1.2% [3] - Net profit (in million yuan): - 2022: 6,929 - 2023: 4,260 - 2024E: 3,898 - 2025E: 4,223 - 2026E: 4,450 - Year-on-year growth rates: - 2022: 40.3% - 2023: -38.5% - 2024E: -8.5% - 2025E: 8.3% - 2026E: 5.4% [3] Coal Business Overview - The company has diversified coal types, primarily producing low-sulfur, low-ash, high-calorific value coal, mainly sold to large steel and power generation enterprises [2] - As of the end of 2023, the total resource amount of the company's mines was 2.12 billion tons, with a recoverable reserve of 760 million tons [2] Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 3.9 billion yuan, 4.2 billion yuan, and 4.5 billion yuan for the years 2024 to 2026, corresponding to P/E ratios of 7.2X, 6.7X, and 6.3X respectively [2]