TZE(002129) 民生证券·2024-04-28 08:30Investment Rating - Maintain "Recommend" rating with a target price of 10.44 CNY [1] Core Views - The company's performance is under short-term pressure due to industry supply-demand mismatch, intensified competition, and losses from its investment in Maxeon [1] - Despite the challenges, the company's silicon wafer shipments increased significantly, with N-type silicon wafer market share reaching 36.4% and overseas market share at 65% [1] - The company maintains its leading position in the industry with advanced technology and cost advantages, achieving a full cost leadership of 0.03 CNY/W compared to the second-best in the industry [1] - The company's module business is progressing steadily, with shipments reaching 8.6GW in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 16.8% [1] - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 52.16 billion CNY, 57.70 billion CNY, and 63.38 billion CNY in 2024-2026, with net profits of 2.92 billion CNY, 3.73 billion CNY, and 4.66 billion CNY, respectively [1] Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 59.15 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 11.74%, and a net profit of 3.42 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 49.90% [1] - In Q1 2024, the company's revenue was 10.49 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 38.87%, and the net profit was -8.80 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 139.05% [1] - The company's gross margin in 2023 was 20.25%, with a net profit margin of 5.78% [2] - The company's ROE in 2023 was 8.23%, and it is expected to increase to 8.91% by 2026 [2] Operational Highlights - The company's silicon wafer shipments reached 114GW in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 68%, with a market share of 23.4% [1] - The company's capacity reached 183GW by the end of 2023, with N-type silicon wafer capacity at 34.95GW, a year-on-year increase of 40% [1] - The company's labor productivity in crystal and wafer production is 25MW/person/year and 27MW/person/year, respectively, leading the industry by 11.6% and 71% [1] - The company's module shipments in 2023 were 8.6GW, with a year-on-year increase of 16.8%, and the capacity of shingled modules reached 18GW by the end of 2023 [1] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from technological optimization and capacity expansion, with market share and profitability expected to improve [1] - The company's revenue is projected to grow at a CAGR of 4.5% from 2024 to 2026, with net profit growing at a CAGR of 17.1% over the same period [2] - The company's PE ratio is expected to decrease from 14x in 2024 to 9x in 2026, reflecting improved profitability [1]