2024年一季报点评：存货较年初增长30%；国内市场或将加速放量

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company [1][2] Core Views - The company is a leading enterprise in China's large-scale UAV systems and the only listed UAV platform under the Aviation Industry Corporation of China [1] - The Wing Loong series UAVs hold the second-largest global market share in the reconnaissance-strike integrated UAV market, with users in over ten countries [1] - The company is expected to benefit from the growth in domestic special equipment demand and the low-altitude economy, with projected net profits of 417 million, 570 million, and 762 million yuan for 2024-2026, respectively [1][2] Financial Performance - In 1Q24, the company reported revenue of 60 million yuan, a YoY decrease of 87.1%, and a net loss of 30 million yuan, compared to a net profit of 60 million yuan in the same period last year [1] - The gross margin for 1Q24 was 27.1%, a slight increase of 0.19ppt YoY, while the net margin dropped to -44% from 13.5% in the previous year [1] - The company's inventory increased by 30% compared to the beginning of the year, reaching 1.28 billion yuan [1] Market and Product Development - The company is focusing on the development of the Wing Loong series UAVs, including multiple platforms such as Wing Loong-1, Wing Loong-2, and Wing Loong-3, which offer various control modes, reconnaissance capabilities, and weapon integration [1] - The company is also developing medium and small UAV products under 1 ton, aiming to capitalize on the low-altitude economy opportunities [1] Financial Forecasts - The company's revenue is expected to grow from 2.664 billion yuan in 2023 to 6.338 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 33.5% [5] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to increase from 303 million yuan in 2023 to 762 million yuan in 2026 [5] - The PE ratio is expected to decrease from 89x in 2023 to 35x in 2026, reflecting improved profitability [5] Valuation Metrics - The company's PE ratio for 2024-2026 is estimated at 64x, 47x, and 35x, respectively [1][2] - The PB ratio is projected to decline from 4.6x in 2023 to 3.7x in 2026 [5]