24Q1归母净利润同增5%，盈利能力持续提升

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a reasonable value estimate of 9.29 CNY per share, while the current price is 8.49 CNY per share [5]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 1.11 billion, 1.23 billion, and 1.35 billion CNY for the years 2024 to 2026, representing year-on-year growth rates of 8.1%, 10.4%, and 10.2% respectively. The sustained improvement in the influence of the company's proprietary brands across various segments and the expected benefits from the Belt and Road Initiative are key factors supporting this outlook [3][4]. Financial Summary - Revenue Forecast: The company's revenue is projected to decline from 141.15 billion CNY in 2022 to 122.98 billion CNY in 2023, followed by a recovery to 133.6 billion CNY in 2024, with growth rates of -16.3%, -12.9%, and 8.6% respectively [4]. - EBITDA: Expected to increase from 4.86 billion CNY in 2022 to 5.34 billion CNY in 2024, indicating a recovery trend [4]. - Net Profit: The net profit is forecasted to grow from 913 million CNY in 2022 to 1.11 billion CNY in 2024, with growth rates of 19.0%, 12.8%, and 8.1% for the respective years [4]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): EPS is expected to rise from 0.70 CNY in 2022 to 0.85 CNY in 2024 [4]. - Return on Equity (ROE): Projected to remain stable around 14.6% to 15.0% from 2022 to 2023, with slight improvements thereafter [4]. Quarterly Performance - In Q1 2024, the company reported a revenue of 23.74 billion CNY, a year-on-year decline of 23.4%, while the net profit increased by 5.1% to 270 million CNY. The decline in revenue is attributed to pressures from commodity demand [12]. - The gross margin for Q1 2024 was 6.1%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved profitability due to business structure optimization [12]. - Operating cash flow showed a net outflow of 2.32 billion CNY in Q1 2024, which is a significant increase from the 1.03 billion CNY outflow in Q1 2023, primarily due to inventory buildup in response to market conditions [12]. Business Outlook - The shipbuilding segment has a robust order backlog, with 65 vessels on order as of April 3, 2024, indicating strong demand in this area [12]. - The company is enhancing collaboration with its parent company, which is expected to strengthen its operational capabilities and market position [12].