24Q1外销维持高景气，内销持续改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting the stock to outperform the market by more than 10% over the next 12 months [5][26]. Core Insights - The company's 2023 annual report aligns with preliminary performance, reporting revenue of 14.65 billion yuan (YoY +6.9%) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 980 million yuan (YoY +1.6%). The gross margin was 22.7% (YoY +1.6 percentage points) and the net profit margin was 6.7% (YoY -0.3 percentage points) [22]. - In Q4 2023, revenue reached 3.89 billion yuan (YoY +30.7%) with a net profit of 240 million yuan (YoY +105.1%). The gross margin was 23.4% (YoY -0.5 percentage points) and the net profit margin was 6.2% (YoY +2.2 percentage points) [22]. - For Q1 2024, the company reported revenue of 3.47 billion yuan (YoY +22.8%) and a net profit of 170 million yuan (YoY +24.7%). The gross margin was 21.9% (YoY unchanged) and the net profit margin was 5.0% (YoY +0.1 percentage points) [23]. Financial Summary - The company forecasts a net profit growth of 15.3%, 10.5%, and 10.1% for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively. The report assigns a 15x price-to-earnings ratio for 2024, leading to a target price of 20.57 yuan per share [24]. - The financial projections include: - Revenue (million yuan): 2022A 13,696, 2023A 14,647, 2024E 16,361, 2025E 17,870, 2026E 19,398 [25]. - Net profit (million yuan): 2022A 961, 2023A 977, 2024E 1,127, 2025E 1,245, 2026E 1,371 [25]. - Earnings per share (yuan/share): 2022A 1.16, 2023A 1.19, 2024E 1.37, 2025E 1.52, 2026E 1.67 [25].