2023年报及2024一季报点评：23年平稳收官，Q1结构亮眼

Investment Rating - Maintain "Overweight" rating [1] Core Views - Revenue and performance in 2023 met expectations, with a significant increase in prepayments likely driven by the price hike of Qinghua 20 [2] - Strong mid-to-high-end consumption during the Spring Festival, with a notable product structure in Q1 2024 [2] - Synchronous development in both domestic and external markets in 2023, with faster growth in external markets in Q1 2024 [2] - Profitability optimization driven by gross margin improvement or sales expense ratio reduction [3] - Continued deepening of marketing reforms, solid market foundation, and accelerated channel expansion in 2023 [3] Financial Performance - 2023 revenue and net profit were RMB 31,928 million and RMB 10,438 million, up 21.80% and 28.93% YoY respectively [2] - Q1 2024 revenue and net profit were RMB 15,338 million and RMB 6,262 million, up 20.94% and 29.95% YoY respectively [2] - Gross margin and net margin in 2023 were 75.31% and 32.76%, with a slight decrease in gross margin and an increase in net margin [3] - Q1 2024 gross margin and net margin were 77.46% and 40.86%, up 1.90pcts and 2.75pcts YoY respectively [3] Market and Product Structure - Mid-to-high-end liquor revenue in 2023 was RMB 23,203 million, up 22.56% YoY, while other liquor revenue was RMB 8,540 million, up 20.15% YoY [2] - Q1 2024 mid-to-high-end liquor revenue was RMB 11,860 million, up 24.90% YoY, while other liquor revenue was RMB 3,436 million, up 9.88% YoY [2] - Domestic revenue in 2023 was RMB 12,084 million, up 20.41% YoY, while external revenue was RMB 19,659 million, up 22.84% YoY [2] - Q1 2024 domestic revenue was RMB 5,597 million, up 11.44% YoY, while external revenue was RMB 9,700 million, up 27.61% YoY [2] Financial Forecasts - Expected revenue for 2024-2026: RMB 38,902 million, RMB 46,773 million, and RMB 56,142 million [3] - Expected net profit for 2024-2026: RMB 13,284 million, RMB 16,370 million, and RMB 19,994 million [3] - Current PE ratios for 2024-2026: 23.2x, 18.8x, and 15.4x [3] Analyst Background - Xiong Peng, head of DBS Securities' consumer group and chief analyst for the food and beverage industry, with 6 years of industry research experience [6]